András Richárd Wernigg (LinkedIn)
This research examines the quality and accessibility of hernia care in Hungary using stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. The model, based on 2022 baseline data, demonstrates the dangers of deterministic capacity planning and the “error of averages.” The 10-year forecast highlights the burden caused by an aging population, regional disparities, and the volume-limiting effect of the HBCS system. Stochastic modeling provides transparent decision support for optimizing scarce capacities.